Zondo answered
PropTrust’s mortgage dragon
fixed variable
Fixed or variable in 2026 — does the BoC cut path change my answer?
BoC overnight is at 2.25% (Apr 2026), prime 4.45%. Variable mortgages sit around 4.2%; 5-year fixed around 4.4%. The bond market is pricing in 1–2 more small cuts this year. If those land, variable beats fixed by year 2; if BoC pauses or hikes, fixed is safer. The honest answer: pick variable if a 50bp jump would not break you; pick fixed if it would.
What your bank didn’t say
Banks often steer toward fixed because variable mortgages cost the bank less when funding tightens. The "fixed is safer" pitch ignores that you pay a 20–40bp premium upfront for that safety, and the IRD penalty on Big-6 fixed is brutal if you break early. The right answer is risk-tolerance-driven, not rate-prediction-driven.
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PropTrust is a Canadian property data platform. We are not a lender, broker, real estate agent, landlord, or paid advisor. This is information about how the rules work — not advice on your specific situation. For that, talk to a licensed professional.